Title: Syria and Turkey: a turning point or a historical bet
Author: Aqil Mahfoudh
Place of publication:
Publisher: The Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies
Release date: 2021
Syrian-Turkish relations represent a regional and international phenomenon that has attracted a considerable amount of political and media attention; however, research on the dynamics and wagers involved in these relations remains inadequate in explaining the transformations which appeared to run counter to the modern (and perhaps pre-modern) context of Syrian-Turkish relations.
The Syrian-Turkish phenomenon is an example of the working of two opposing dynamics, the first being the policies and factors of rapprochement, intersection, and mutual dependency, and the second representing the policies and factors of separation, disengagement, and antagonism. The persistence of these contradictory dynamics maintains the relationship in a perpetual turning point which does not fulfill the conditions for its closure. This situation could change when the two parties agree - objectively and politically - on neglecting the factors and elements of antagonism, which would constitute what we term a historical bet. However, if the two parties opt for policies of competition and conflict, this could take relations back to the pre-Adana Accord phase (October 1998), and events could evolve into a direct confrontation, which we term historical regression.
The Syrian crisis constitutes another avenue for the examination of the nature of the shifts and wagers witnessed in Syrian-Turkish relations, and in the overall determinants of the bilateral ties; as well as the Turkish postures toward the crisis and the potential scenarios (from the Turkish perspective).
This study consists of an introduction and a theoretical framework, as well as seven main axes. The first axis deals with the question of the turning point in Syrian-Turkish relations, and whether the relationship is witnessing a turning point, a collective confusion, or a preface for a historical bet. The second axis pertains to the historical bets in Syrian-Turkish relations. The third axis examines the general determinants of the Turkish position vis-à-vis the Syrian crisis. The fourth axis is devoted to the general manifestations of Turkish policy toward the crisis. The fifth axis exposes the Turkish narrative in explaining its posture towards the crisis. The sixth axis deals with the relationship between Turkey and the Syrian opposition. Finally, the seventh axis is devoted to a description of the potential scenarios regarding the Syrian crisis (from Turkey's perspective), while the eighth axis will be an exposition of the conclusions and inferences of the study.[1]