News Analysis: ‘I am trying to stay alive.’ Jobs at mom-and-pop shops are disappearing - Earnings Revision Downgrade

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Small businesses with fewer than ten employees have experienced 13 consecutive months of job cuts, according to analysis from the U.S. Congress Joint Economic Committee, based on Intuit QuickBooks Small Business Index data. The sector eliminated 292,200 positions in 2025 alone, representing a dramatic acceleration from the 87,800 jobs lost in 2024. This contraction rate exceeds even pandemic-era losses, with small businesses cutting four times more positions in recent months compared to 2020. The job losses align closely with President Trump's implementation of sweeping global tariffs in April 2025, which the Supreme Court subsequently struck down. Industries most exposed to trade disruptions experienced the steepest employment declines: retail shed 41,700 positions, manufacturing lost 38,600 jobs, construction eliminated 17,700 positions, and wholesale operations cut 10,400 roles between April 2025 and April 2026. Business owners report being unable to fully pass increased costs to price-sensitive consumers, forcing difficult decisions about workforce reductions. Meanwhile, new business formation remains robust, with entrepreneurs filing 1.56 million business applications between November and January—the highest three-month total since at least 2004—suggesting continued entrepreneurial dynamism despite operational challenges. News Analysis: ‘I am trying to stay alive.’ Jobs at mom-and-pop shops are disappearingInvestors often monitor sector rotations to inform allocation decisions. Understanding which sectors are gaining or losing momentum helps optimize portfolios.Monitoring derivatives activity provides early indications of market sentiment. Options and futures positioning often reflect expectations that are not yet evident in spot markets, offering a leading indicator for informed traders.News Analysis: ‘I am trying to stay alive.’ Jobs at mom-and-pop shops are disappearingSome traders rely on historical volatility to estimate potential price ranges. This helps them plan entry and exit points more effectively.

Key Highlights

**Employment Data:** Mom-and-pop shops have eliminated 292,200 jobs in 2025, marking the most severe contraction since systematic tracking commenced. The 13-month streak of consecutive job losses significantly outpaces the 87,800 positions eliminated throughout 2024. **Industry Impact:** Employment declines between April 2025 and April 2026 concentrated in retail (-41,700), manufacturing (-38,600), construction (-17,700), and wholesale (-10,400) sectors—all categories with substantial tariff exposure. **Cost Escalation:** Small manufacturers report component price increases reaching 400%, with payment delays extending 90 days or more. Diesel costs have surged to approximately $7 per gallon in certain markets, adding transportation expense pressures. **Revenue Decline:** The affected industries have experienced significant monthly revenue reductions since April 2025, compounding employment pressures. **Business Formation:** Despite operational difficulties, March business applications reached approximately 492,000, while the November-to-January period recorded 1.56 million applications—the strongest three-month performance in over two decades. **Wage and Tax Developments:** The administration has implemented tax policies benefiting small businesses, including permanent small business deductions, 100% equipment expensing, and tip tax exemption provisions for certain workers. News Analysis: ‘I am trying to stay alive.’ Jobs at mom-and-pop shops are disappearingThe integration of AI-driven insights has started to complement human decision-making. While automated models can process large volumes of data, traders still rely on judgment to evaluate context and nuance.Some traders find that integrating multiple markets improves decision-making. Observing correlations provides early warnings of potential shifts.News Analysis: ‘I am trying to stay alive.’ Jobs at mom-and-pop shops are disappearingTimely access to news and data allows traders to respond to sudden developments. Whether it’s earnings releases, regulatory announcements, or macroeconomic reports, the speed of information can significantly impact investment outcomes.

Expert Insights

The distress facing America's smallest businesses represents a critical test for economic policy, with implications extending far beyond the affected enterprises themselves. Joe Brusuelas, chief U.S. economist at RSM, observed that smaller firms possess limited capital depth to weather external shocks, leaving them with three primary options when confronted with cost increases: absorb the expense and compress margins, raise prices and risk customer attrition, or reduce headcount. "While many employ a combination of the three or all three, the net result is higher inflation and rising unemployment," Brusuelas noted, articulating the difficult trade-offs confronting small business operators across multiple industries. The timing of tariff implementation appears significant. The most aggressive layoffs occurred after April 2025, coinciding with the rollout of comprehensive global tariff measures. Small manufacturers, in particular, report component delays and unprecedented price escalation—increases that cannot be readily passed to customers operating with shrinking budgets. This dynamic creates a squeeze that threatens business viability regardless of operational competence. The divergent employment trajectories between the smallest businesses and slightly larger small enterprises merit attention. While firms employing one to 49 workers continued adding positions—gaining 526,000 jobs in the most recent year—operations with fewer than ten workers experienced substantial contraction. This disparity suggests that smaller scale confers disadvantage during periods of economic volatility, as these businesses lack the capital reserves, diversified revenue streams, and financing options available to somewhat larger competitors. The resilience of business formation activity offers a cautiously optimistic counterpoint. Strong entrepreneurial application rates indicate continued confidence in economic opportunity, though lag times between application filing and operational employment generation mean these new ventures will not immediately address current labor market pressures. Looking ahead, energy costs have emerged as an additional concern, with geopolitical tensions driving diesel and fuel prices higher. For businesses dependent on transportation, manufacturing, or temperature-controlled operations, these expenses represent yet another variable cost beyond management control. The Trump administration has emphasized regulatory reduction and tax relief as growth catalysts, pointing to permanent deductions and expanded expensing provisions. However, the immediate operational reality for many small business owners remains challenging, with profit margins typically under 10 percent leaving minimal buffer against external shocks. The gap between policy intent and grassroots economic experience appears substantial, suggesting potential structural headwinds for employment in the sector regardless of policy direction. News Analysis: ‘I am trying to stay alive.’ Jobs at mom-and-pop shops are disappearingReal-time data analysis is indispensable in today’s fast-moving markets. Access to live updates on stock indices, futures, and commodity prices enables precise timing for entries and exits. Coupling this with predictive modeling ensures that investment decisions are both responsive and strategically grounded.Some traders focus on short-term price movements, while others adopt long-term perspectives. Both approaches can benefit from real-time data, but their interpretation and application differ significantly.News Analysis: ‘I am trying to stay alive.’ Jobs at mom-and-pop shops are disappearingData integration across platforms has improved significantly in recent years. This makes it easier to analyze multiple markets simultaneously.